I ran 5 million Monte Carlo simulations of the full NFL season to calculate the effect of every game on the playoff and draft position odds for every team. Click on your team to find out which team you should root for in each game this week to maximize your odds for making it to the playoffs or winning the Superbowl. If you’re tanking, you can also see how to strategically root for teams that maximize your odds of getting the first overall draft pick. For details on how the values in this table are calculated, see the Methodology page.
Data is updated every Tuesday (usually).
League Standings
Select your team to see who you should root for this week
Updated on September 22, 2026 at 12:15 PM EDT
Rank | Team | Record | Elo | Playoff Odds▼ | Conf Champ | SB ChampSuperbowl Champ | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 2-0 | 1541 | 91.1% | 22.8% | 9.9% | 0.4% |
| 2 |  | 2-0 | 1490 | 82.4% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| 3 |  | 2-0 | 1509 | 82.2% | 13.4% | 5.2% | 1.3% |
| 4 |  | 1-1 | 1543 | 81.9% | 16.7% | 7.3% | 1.7% |
| 5 |  | 2-0 | 1599 | 77.0% | 15.6% | 9.6% | 0.3% |
| 6 |  | 2-0 | 1606 | 76.4% | 15.2% | 9.5% | 0.1% |
| 7 |  | 2-0 | 1597 | 75.9% | 14.2% | 8.7% | 0.2% |
| 8 |  | 1-1 | 1642 | 70.0% | 15.8% | 10.7% | 0.3% |
| 9 |  | 1-1 | 1494 | 63.2% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 5.0% |
| 10 |  | 1-1 | 1495 | 59.8% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 5.6% |
| 11 |  | 1-1 | 1576 | 59.3% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| 12 |  | 2-0 | 1528 | 58.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 13 |  | 1-1 | 1508 | 58.8% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 7.5% |
| 14 |  | 0-2 | 1537 | 53.9% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 9.4% |
| 15 |  | 1-1 | 1513 | 47.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 4.6% |
| 16 |  | 1-1 | 1585 | 43.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% |
| 17 |  | 1-1 | 1573 | 43.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 18 |  | 1-1 | 1569 | 41.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| 19 |  | 2-0 | 1395 | 32.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 18.4% |
| 20 |  | 1-1 | 1500 | 31.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 8.3% |
| 21 |  | 1-1 | 1518 | 25.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 6.5% |
| 22 |  | 0-2 | 1535 | 25.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 15.1% |
| 23 |  | 0-2 | 1453 | 22.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 31.2% |
| 24 |  | 1-1 | 1428 | 22.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 23.8% |
| 25 |  | 0-2 | 1467 | 17.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 32.9% |
| 26 |  | 1-1 | 1370 | 17.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 38.2% |
| 27 |  | 0-2 | 1488 | 12.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 25.2% |
| 28 |  | 1-1 | 1355 | 10.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 45.1% |
| 29 |  | 0-2 | 1488 | 6.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 24.3% |
| 30 |  | 1-1 | 1449 | 4.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 22.8% |
| 31 |  | 0-2 | 1358 | 3.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 73.6% |
| 32 |  | 0-2 | 1292 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88.8% |
Column Descriptions:
Rank: Sequential ranking based on the current sort order.
Team: Team name and logo.
Record: Wins-Losses-Ties. Ties are omitted if they are 0.
Elo: Current team strength rating used by the simulation. More details on Elo here.
Remaining SoS: Average current Elo of remaining regular-season opponents.
Playoff Odds: Football Sensei odds of making the playoffs.
Vegas Playoff Odds: Kalshi market-implied odds of making the playoffs, when available.
#1 Seed: Football Sensei odds of finishing as the #1 seed in the conference.
Conf Champ: Football Sensei odds of winning the conference championship game.
Vegas Conf Champ: Kalshi market-implied conference championship odds, when available.
Superbowl Champ: Football Sensei odds of winning the Superbowl.
Vegas Superbowl Champ: Kalshi market-implied Superbowl championship odds, when available.
#1 Overall Pick: Football Sensei odds of owning the #1 overall pick in the upcoming draft.
Vegas #1 Overall Pick: Kalshi market-implied odds of making the #1 overall pick in the upcoming draft.
Top 5 Pick: Football Sensei odds of securing a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft.